What Is Negative Carryover?

The one-sentence version

Negative carryover means that a negative month is carried into your next month and deducted from your revenue share before anything is paid. A month goes negative when your players have a winning month, meaning the casino loses money on them.

RevShare pays a percentage of Net Gaming Revenue (NGR), which is roughly what players lose, minus deductions (see what is NGR). NGR goes negative when players win more than they stake. Without carryover, a negative month pays zero and closes. With carryover, you start the next month in the hole.

For context, across 14 partner deals in our network, active terms as of Oct 2026, RevShare ranged from 20% to 80%, with a median of 35%. The worked examples below use illustrative rates, not these figures.

A worked example

All inputs are illustrative. Say you're on 40% RevShare.

• Month 1: your players lose €10,000 net. NGR is +€10,000, and +€10,000 × 40% = €4,000.
• Month 2: one player hits a big win, so your players are up €8,000 net. NGR is −€8,000. You earn €0 and the −€8,000 is carried forward.
• Month 3: your players lose €10,000 again. The carried −€8,000 comes off first: €10,000 − €8,000 = €2,000, and €2,000 × 40% = €800, not €4,000.

That one player cost you Month 2 and most of Month 3. With no negative carryover, Month 2 would have reset to zero and Month 3 would have paid the full €4,000. That is €3,200 more in that month alone.

Negative carryover moves the variance of player results from the operator onto you. One high-roller's good run can become your problem for weeks.

Negative carryover variants compared

These clauses don't all work the same way. Work out which one you are being offered.

Capped carryover comes in two forms. Either the carried deficit is limited to a set amount, or it is written off after a set number of months. The agreement has to say which applies. Per-brand versus pooled is a separate setting that applies on top of the other three. It decides how widely a deficit spreads.

Worked example: six months under three carryover treatments

The inputs

All figures are illustrative, not market data. The rate is a flat 30% RevShare in EUR, with no specific market. Monthly NGR: M1 +€6,000, M2 −€9,000, M3 +€4,000, M4 +€3,000, M5 −€2,000, M6 +€5,000.

Monthly reset

Each month stands alone. M1: €6,000 × 30% = €1,800. M2: €0. M3: €4,000 × 30% = €1,200. M4: €3,000 × 30% = €900. M5: €0. M6: €5,000 × 30% = €1,500. Total: €5,400.

Full carryover

• M1: €6,000 × 30% = €1,800.
• M2: €0 paid, and −€9,000 carried forward.
• M3: €4,000 − €9,000 = −€5,000, so €0.
• M4: €3,000 − €5,000 = −€2,000, so €0.
• M5: −€2,000 − €2,000 = −€4,000, so €0.
• M6: €5,000 − €4,000 = €1,000, and €1,000 × 30% = €300.

Total: €2,100. The M2 deficit stays unpaid through M3, M4 and M5, and a fresh negative month adds to it.

Capped carryover

In this example, the carried deficit is capped at €3,000.

• M1: €1,800.
• M2: €0 paid. The carried deficit is capped at −€3,000.
• M3: €4,000 − €3,000 = €1,000, and €1,000 × 30% = €300.
• M4: €3,000 × 30% = €900.
• M5: €0 paid, and −€2,000 carried forward (within the cap).
• M6: €5,000 − €2,000 = €3,000, and €3,000 × 30% = €900.

Total: €3,900.

The cumulative difference

The player results are identical, yet the payouts differ: €5,400 − €2,100 = €3,300 between reset and full carryover.

Why networks use it (and why it's not in your favour)

Operators argue that carryover 'shares the risk' of player wins. The question is who is better placed to carry that risk.

Casino games give the house a predictable long-term advantage, while offering players the possibility of a short-term gain that can be large. Many games, particularly slot machines, have extremely high standard deviations. The law of large numbers only applies over a large number of observations. A small number of observations need not come close to the expected value.

It follows that an operator with thousands of players can absorb one big win. You might have a few dozen players, so the same win hits you far harder. Carryover pushes the house's natural variance onto the party least able to absorb it. That one line is the difference between a deal where earnings compound and one where they get clawed back.

How NGR deductions push a month negative without a big win

NGR is gross gaming revenue (GGR) minus deductions such as bonus costs, payment fees, gaming duty and admin fees. Regulators track GGR. For example, iGaming Ontario requires operators joining its market to complete end-to-end testing of GGR data and funds transfers.

Gaming duty is one of these costs. UK Remote Gaming Duty, for example, is charged on profits, which HMRC guidance describes as amounts due as stakes, less amounts paid out as winnings. Your contract decides whether and how any duty comes off before your share is calculated.

In a quiet month with heavy bonus spend, deductions can exceed gross revenue. NGR then goes negative even though no player won big. Under carryover, that deficit also eats into later months, so carryover multiplies the effect of every deduction.

Pooled balances: brands, GEOs and sub-affiliates

Brand and GEO pooling

Some agreements calculate the balance at account level. Then a negative month on one brand or GEO can wipe out positive earnings on another. Look for 'account', 'aggregate' or 'all brands' in the commission clause, and ask for per-brand settlement in writing.

Sub-affiliate balances

Multi-tier programmes pay the parent commission on the activity of the sub-partners they refer. Check whether a sub-affiliate's negative balance flows up into your balance or is kept separate (ring-fenced).

Hybrid deals: does the RevShare deficit hit your CPA?

In a hybrid deal, a negative RevShare balance may be netted against the CPA component, or the two may be kept separate. If the agreement doesn't say which, you can't model the deal. Ask for an explicit statement that the RevShare balance is not offset against CPA payments. More in CPA vs RevShare vs Hybrid.

Where the clause hides in the terms

The clause rarely says 'negative carryover'. Search for 'negative balance carried forward', 'rolling balance', 'cumulative net revenue', 'deficit' and 'offset against future commissions'. Read these clauses alongside it:

• the operator's right to amend terms
• termination, and what happens to an outstanding balance when you leave
• whether the balance is calculated per brand or pooled
• governing law

We don't comment on whether these clauses can be enforced. Take your own legal advice and check the governing-law clause.

When carryover matters more (and when CPA is the better trade)

Carryover matters more for small player bases and for traffic that brings a few large depositors, because results from small samples swing more. It matters less for large, varied volumes, where results are more likely to average out.

CPA pays per qualified FTD, so there is no NGR balance to carry. The trade-off is that you give up RevShare's long-tail value, which depends on keeping your traffic. For SEO affiliates, Google's spam policies say that sites that violate them may rank lower or not appear in results at all. Weigh both sides in CPA vs RevShare vs Hybrid.

How to avoid it

Questions to put in writing

1. 01Ask directly: 'Is there negative carryover?' The answer should be a clear no.
2. 02Get it in writing before you send a single click.
3. 03Prefer 'no negative carryover' plus lifetime RevShare together. The combination is what lets your earnings actually build up.
4. 04Watch related clauses: time-capped RevShare and heavy NGR deductions do similar damage. (More in CPA vs RevShare vs Hybrid.)
5. 05Ask for per-brand settlement, ring-fenced sub-affiliate balances and a clause that keeps CPA payments in a hybrid deal separate from the RevShare balance.

Counter-terms to propose

If full carryover can't be removed, propose a cap or time limit on the carried balance. Also ask for any balance to be written off when the agreement ends.

Monitoring carried balances after you sign

Check monthly NGR and any carried balance on every statement, and reconcile both against the dashboard. If a carried balance appears, ask for a breakdown by brand, deductions and player wins, and compare it with the contract wording. For statements, thresholds and payment mechanics, see how iGaming affiliates get paid.

Common mistakes

• Accepting a verbal 'no carryover'.
• Missing pooled account-level balances.
• Ignoring the operator's right to change terms.
• Assuming hybrid deals are immune.
• Not checking what happens to the balance when the agreement ends.

What good looks like

A deal built for affiliates removes this trap: no negative carryover in writing, so a losing month closes at zero and never follows you. Add lifetime revenue share and sub-affiliate income on top. Look for per-brand balances, no offset against CPA, ring-fenced sub-affiliate balances and clear termination terms. Compare the terms you're offered using the checklist in how to choose an iGaming affiliate network.

FAQ

What is negative carryover in simple terms?

NGR goes negative in a period when your referred players have a winning month, or when deductions exceed revenue. With negative carryover, that negative balance is moved into the following months and subtracted from your earnings before RevShare is paid. One lucky player can wipe out weeks of income.

Is negative carryover normal?

Some RevShare agreements include it. Others reset the balance to zero each month. Either way, it does not work in your favour. A 'no negative carryover' term means a losing month closes at zero and never follows you, so check the wording in every deal.

How do I avoid negative carryover?

Only sign RevShare or hybrid deals that explicitly state 'no negative carryover', and get it confirmed in writing before you send traffic. Also check for pooled balances, offsets against CPA and the operator's right to amend terms.

Does negative carryover apply to CPA deals?

Pure CPA pays a fixed amount per qualified first-time depositor. It is not calculated on NGR, so there is no NGR balance to carry forward. Hybrid deals are different. Check whether a negative RevShare balance can be offset against the CPA component, and get the answer in writing before you send traffic.

What happens to a negative balance if I leave a programme?

The termination clause decides this, so read it before you sign. Ask for written confirmation that any outstanding deficit is written off when you leave and is not treated as a debt you owe. Whether such clauses can be enforced depends on the governing law, so take your own legal advice.

Is capped carryover acceptable?

It sits between full carryover and a monthly reset. First check whether the cap is a maximum amount or a time limit. Then run your own monthly results through it using the worked-example method. If your player base is small, a single win weighs more heavily, so push for a monthly reset instead.

What is the difference between per-brand and pooled carryover?

Per-brand settlement keeps each brand's balance separate. Pooled settlement nets all brands, GEOs and sometimes sub-affiliates together at account level, so a deficit on one can wipe out positive earnings on another. Look for words such as 'aggregate' or 'all brands' in the commission clause, and ask for per-brand settlement in writing.